iPhone Hill

Credit Suisse Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin thinks we can expect Apple’s iPhone to remain exclusive to AT&T for an additional 12-18 months, long past some people’s expectations (and recent rumors). Not only will it remain exclusive, Chaplin says, but the delay will have a major negative impact on Verizon, causing him to lower his rating on Big Red from “Outperform” to “Neutral” and cut his share price target from $32 to $30.

“Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize,” Chaplin wrote. “We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the carriers and the other handset OEMs.”

Credit Suisse is 75% certain that AT&T will keep their stranglehold on iPhone for the rest of this calendar year.

“We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010,” Chaplin wrote. “Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.”

Those of us here at TiPb have often wondered “analyst” predictions were any more reliable than magic 8-ball results, so we will ask you, our readers — will we ever see an iPhone on Verizon or is Steve out to bury them for rejecting the iPhone the first time around? Sound off in the comments!

[Via Apple Insider]

75% Chance iPhone Remains AT&T Exclusive iPhone Carrier in 2010 is a story by TiPb. This feed is sponsored by The iPhone Blog Store.

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According to Mary Meeker and analysts from Morgan Stanley, Apple has a two to three year lead over its competitors in the mobile Internet space. Even though Apple’s iPhone and iPod touch represent just a small piece of of the global smartphone pie with 17 percent, the two devices are responsible for a astounding 65 percent of all mobile internet use.

The iPhone and iPod touch have significantly surpassed the likes of Netscape, AOL, and NTT’s DoCoMo in the first nine quarters of being on the market with an install base of 57 million users. That’s most impressive if you consider that in the same time frame DoCoMo achieved 25 million users, Netscape 11 million, with AOL coming in last with 7 million.

We can’t say Apple is slaughtering the competition, not with Android coming on strong and other platforms just rebooting (or about to). But, we are not likely to see this trend die anytime soon as Apple continues to gain more and more market share in the smartphone world.

This is a story by the iPhone Blog. This feed is sponsored by The iPhone Blog Store.

Apple Has “2 or 3 Year Lead” in Mobile Internet Computing with iPhone and iPod touch